Howard Marks’ Lecture at Investment Conference 2024

Investment philosophy is crucial for any organization. An investment philosophy should be well-thought-out and intentional, and it should address fundamental questions such as whether to target average or above-average returns. The video argues that achieving superior returns requires a knowledge advantage, which can be gained by studying micro factors like individual companies and industries, rather than macro factors like forecasts.

Here are the key points discussed in the video:

  • Investment philosophy is essential. It should be a foundation for all investment decisions and activities of an organization.
  • Investors should decide upfront whether to pursue average or above-average returns. Targeting above-average returns requires taking on more risk.
  • Macro forecasting is unreliable and should not be a part of the investment strategy.
  • The real risk lies in bad outcomes, not just the variability of returns.
  • Investors should carefully assess and manage risk throughout the investment process.
  • There is a trade-off between risk and return. Superior returns can only be achieved by taking on more risk.